California Almonds on Fire? Why 2025 Could Be a Record-Breaking Year or a Total Bust

An exclusive sit-down with Mallvinder Kahal from Atlas Almonds on where the 2025 season is headed

The USDA Estimate: Ceiling or Fantasy?

The USDA recently released its subjective estimate of 2.8 billion pounds for California’s 2025 almond crop. According to Mallvinder of Atlas Almonds, that figure represents the industry’s “crop ceiling”—a best-case scenario assuming no further heatwaves or pest damage in the coming months.

“We’ve never actually met both the subjective and objective estimates in the past three years,” he pointed out. “If we’re being realistic, 2.8 is probably the top, not the baseline.”

Other projections from traders and handlers range from 2.65 to 2.8 billion, reinforcing the uncertainty still hanging over the season.

Shipping Strength and Carryout Concerns

Despite the fluctuating forecasts, the almond market is showing signs of strong demand. April shipping volumes came in at 241 million pounds, placing the industry on track for a carryout of under 500 million pounds—a number widely viewed as healthy and manageable.

“Sub-500 is kind of the minimum we need to bridge to the 2024–25 crop,” Mallvinder noted. “It’s not too heavy, and it’s not too light—it gives the market breathing room.”

Prices Bounce Back

The current average price for almonds is hovering around $2.80 per pound, a notable increase from last year’s $1.75 average. With international buyers rushing to secure supply ahead of potential tariff changes, the pricing environment has turned aggressive in recent months.

Some new crop sales are being negotiated closer to $2.60, due to hedging against risk. Still, even at a slight discount, growers are seeing stronger returns than they did a year ago.

Quality of Inventory: The X-Factor

One hidden risk lies in carryover quality. Not all product sitting in bins is clean or market-ready. Mallvinder explained that damaged or low-grade almonds—sometimes referred to as “junk and pieces”—are part of the inventory, making it harder to assess real supply levels.

“Just because we have 500 million pounds on paper doesn’t mean all of it is usable,” he said. “You don’t know how much bad product is shipping out versus sitting back.”

Predictions for the Season

Mallvinder offered his personal projection: a final crop around 2.75 billion pounds, with a $2.90 blended average if current trends hold. That would mark a solid recovery for California’s almond sector after several years of oversupply, trade disruptions, and sluggish prices.

“We’ll follow up later this season to see who was right,” Haynes stated. “He’s calling 2.75 and I’m calling 2.90 average. Let’s see where the dust settles.”

The Takeaway

As the almond industry continues to adapt to shifting market conditions, supply clarity, shipping pace, and pricing strategy will define success in 2024. While the numbers are promising, growers are wise to remain cautious about variables still in play—weather, pests, and policy.

Stay tuned for further updates as we track how this crop season unfolds.

Watch the Full Video Interview

Get the full insights straight from the source. Watch Sean Haynes sit down with Mallvinder Kahal from Atlas Almonds as they break down the USDA estimate, pricing trends, and what growers need to know for the upcoming almond season.