Almond Market Update: August 2025 Position Report Signals a Tight Year Ahead

The Almond Board of California (ABC) has released the August 2025 Almond Position Report, and the numbers point to a market that’s both restrained and full of shifting dynamics as the new crop year begins.

Shipments: Slow Start, Exports Carry the Load

August shipments totaled 157.8 million pounds, down 6.23% year-over-year, marking the lowest August volume since 2015. Exports carried the bulk of the market, representing 69% of shipments (109.35M lbs, +2.94%), with strong gains into Western Europe (+10%) and the Middle East (+68%).

Domestic shipments, by contrast, fell nearly 22%, but with key promotions and retail pushes heading into fall, industry watchers expect room for recovery.

Crop Receipts and Supply: Weaker Flow Early On

Receipts reached 259.0 million kernel pounds, a 10.7% decline YoY, largely reflecting weaker Nonpareil yields. Total supply sits at 737.7 million pounds (-6.3%) to open the year.

Updated crop estimates are trending lower, now in the 2.6–2.7 billion pound range, below the official forecast.

Commitments: Softer but Prices Holding Firm

Total commitments were reported at 526.7 million pounds (-13.3% YoY). Domestic commitments came in at 170.9M (-7.1%), while export commitments lagged at 355.8M (-16.0%).

Uncommitted inventory is just 11.1 million pounds, keeping marketable supply tight and helping prices remain steady despite a softer sales pace.

Carry-in and Carryout: Adjustments Shift the Balance

The ABC restated the August 1, 2025 carry-in at 483.8M pounds, reflecting an actual Loss & Exempt (L&E) rate of 3.14%. A handler survey suggests around 447.0M pounds of this is edible inventory. Looking ahead, the ABC projects a carryout near 625M pounds, a figure that would keep overall supply manageable if demand strengthens through fall and winter.

Outlook: Challenges and Opportunities

With weaker receipts, a modest crop, and export markets showing resilience, the almond industry faces a year of tight supply and selective demand growth. While domestic demand will need to pick up, the strength of overseas buyers—particularly in the Middle East and Europe—is already providing key support.

As harvest progresses, growers, handlers, and marketers alike will be watching how commitments build and whether pricing strength holds. This season could prove to be a balancing act between shorter supply and the need to stimulate consumption.

View the Full August 2025 Almond Position Report: Click Here to Access the Report