California’s Avocado Empire Is Shrinking: Why San Diego Growers Are at a Breaking Point

A Once-Dominant Industry in Decline

San Diego County has long stood as the heart of California’s avocado industry, and California itself grows more than 80 percent of all avocados produced in the United States. In 2023 there were approximately 52,534 planted avocado acres throughout California. Although growers in Ventura, San Diego, Santa Barbara, Riverside, and San Luis Obispo Counties still account for the majority of acreage, San Diego County has seen a net reduction of nearly 6,919 acres between 2012 and 2022.

Water: The Most Expensive Ingredient

Water remains the single largest input cost for avocado growers in California. In fact, recent research from the University of California Agriculture & Natural Resources shows that optimizations in irrigation can make a very significant difference to margins, given that water costs often exceed expenditures on fertilization and many other ongoing maintenance expenses.

A Workforce in Short Supply

The labor required for avocado harvesting, maintenance, pruning, and pest management is highly specialized and seasonal. With tightening labor markets and increasing regulatory complexity in programs like H-2A, many growers report difficulty in securing reliable labor. While I did not find a definitive recent number for labor shortfall in San Diego specifically, USDA data and industry analyses indicate labor availability remains one of the most persistent constraints in U.S. specialty crop production.

Competition Without Borders

Domestic production has not kept pace with growing U.S. demand for avocados. Imported avocados now account for nearly 90 percent of the U.S. supply, up from about 40 percent in the early 2000s. Mexico remains the dominant supplier, accounting for roughly 80-89 percent of U.S. imports in recent years. This influx of imports puts constant pressure on California growers, who often face higher production and regulatory costs.

Land Pressures and the Long View

Between 2012 and 2022, San Diego County reduced its avocado-bearing acreage by nearly 6,919 acres, even while some counties farther north (for example, Ventura and Santa Barbara) increased their avocado acreage by almost 4,000 acres. Replanting or “stumping” trees to manage disease or tree size requires substantial investment, and these trees can take several years before they return full production—a delay many growers are increasingly reluctant or unable to absorb.

What the Future Holds

California’s avocado industry is worth over $523 million in value, underscoring how important even marginal losses in acreage or yield are to the broader agricultural economy. With consumer demand in the U.S. for avocados continuing to climb—and most of it being met via imports—there is a growing urgency for policy support in areas such as water pricing, labor regulation, trade and pest inspection standards, and land use preservation. Only with coordinated support can San Diego’s growers stand a chance at maintaining the legacy of California avocados.