2025 Almond Crop Forecast Jumps 10% — Here’s What We’re Watching

USDA's Objective Measurement Report Offers a Bullish Outlook, but There’s More to the Story

The USDA dropped its 2025 California Almond Objective Measurement Report today, and the top-line number is big: 3.00 billion meat pounds forecasted. That’s a 10% jump from last year’s crop and 7% higher than May’s subjective estimate.

So, what does that mean for growers? What should the industry be watching heading into harvest? Here are our thoughts…

A Strong Rebound After a Rocky Start

Bloom didn’t exactly go off without a hitch this year. California saw a rough mix of rain, wind, and hail in February that slowed bee hours and impacted pollination. But by early March, things turned around. Warmer temps and timely spring rains helped push the crop along, and orchards responded—big time.

The USDA estimates an average nut set per tree of 4,364, up 7% from last year. The Nonpareil variety, which makes up 40% of the total crop, is sitting at 4,526 nuts per tree, up 9%. So despite the weather drama, trees are loaded.

More Pounds, Slightly Smaller Kernels

While volume is looking strong, kernel weights dipped slightly. The average kernel came in at 1.60 grams, just below last year. Nonpareil kernels dropped 2% from 2024. That’s worth keeping an eye on—especially if buyers start nitpicking on size.

But here's the good news: 98.9% of nuts sized were sound. Quality remains high across the board, and with low pest and disease pressure, there’s no red flag yet.

Where the Numbers Really Popped

Some standout county-level gains we noted:

• San Joaquin County: Up to 5,202 nuts per tree from 3,860

• Tulare County: Up to 5,227 from 4,493

• Merced County: Holding strong at 5,237

  
  

Growers in these regions may see above-average yields—especially those who avoided spring stress.

Our Take

We think this forecast sets a hopeful tone heading into harvest, but it’s not without nuance. The market will weigh the bigger crop size against slightly smaller kernels and global pricing dynamics. Exporters may benefit from the larger volume, but local handlers will need to manage expectations around sizing and quality specs.

With harvest expected to begin on time, the real numbers will soon speak for themselves.

We’ll continue to track what this report means for almond prices, grower planning, and processor demand—and keep you in the loop.

Bottom Line from The Ag Center News:

Big crop, good quality, and a potential turning point for the California almond industry—if market conditions hold steady.

Read the full USDA 2025 Almond Objective Measurement Report here!