Over the past decade, California has experienced a surge in walnut production, thanks to new plantings coming into maturity. However, the rapid growth in production and exports from other countries such as China and Chile has caused concern among some walnut handlers in the United States. Despite the record-breaking walnut production in California, the faster growth in other regions has raised worries about the future of the U.S. walnut industry.
According to Claire Lee, assistant marketing director for international trade at the California Walnut Commission, from 2011 to 2021, the production of walnuts in California increased by 46%, while global production increased by 81%. In 2020, the state's growers set a record by harvesting 783,000 tons of walnuts, out of which 63% was exported.
Most of the growth happened in the last five years, with global production increasing by 235,618 metric tons. In 2017-18, the United States accounted for 29% of worldwide production, while China accounted for 42% and Chile for 5%. By 2021, the United States share in global production decreased to 27%, while China's share increased to 49% and Chile's to 7%.
As of October 2022, the USDA’s Tree Nut Estimate projected that “U.S. production is forecast just 1 percent lower to 653,000 MT as lower yields more than offset greater area. California benefitted from heavy rain and significant snowpack in late 2021, though the state has since experienced hot and dry conditions. As a result, water allocations were significantly reduced in many areas. During the last 2 weeks of February, the Sacramento Valley experienced several nights of freezing temperatures, and frost damage was observed. Exports account for a substantial portion of the output and are forecast 3 percent lower to 485,000 tons on lower shipments to the European Union, Turkey, and United Arab Emirates. With lower available supply, stocks are expected to drop 5 percent to 52,000 tons”.
