U.S. Agricultural Trade Outlook 2023

U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year (FY) 2023 are forecast at $181.0 billion, down $3.5 billion from the February forecast. This revision is driven by decreases in corn, wheat, beef, and poultry exports.

• Corn exports are forecast $2.1 billion lower to $14.5 billion on lower unit values and volumes as Brazil is poised to harvest a record second crop of corn.

• Wheat exports are projected down $900 million to $7.4 billion due to lower volumes and unit values, as well as increased competition.

• Overall grain and feed exports are projected $3.3 billion lower at $40.5 billion.

• Total livestock, poultry, and dairy exports are projected to decrease by $1.2 billion to $39.3 billion, as declines in beef and poultry exports more than offset increases in pork exports.

• Soybean exports are projected up $300 million to $32.3 billion on slightly higher volumes.

• Overall oilseed and product exports are forecast $100 million higher to $43.5 billion.

• Cotton exports are forecast at $6.0 billion, up $100 million, as higher volumes more than offset lower unit values. Horticultural exports are unchanged at $39.0 billion.

• The sugar and tropical product export forecast is revised up $400 million to $6.4 billion on higher unit values for sugar and cocoa products.

• Tobacco and product exports are adjusted upward by $400 million due to stronger-than-expected shipments and higher unit values.

• Ethanol exports are forecast unchanged at $3.6 billion.

U.S. agricultural imports in FY 2023 are projected at $198.0 billion, down $1.0 billion from the February forecast. This decrease is primarily driven by horticultural, livestock, dairy, and poultry product imports.